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Extracts from the Latest World Economic Outlook by IMF

01-11-2019

According to IMF forecasts in its latest issue of World Economic Outlook:

Global economic growth in 2019 will slow to 3%

Global economic growth in 2019 will slow to 3%, the lowest since the global financial crisis. In 2020, driven the emerging market and developing economies, global economic growth will slightly increase to 3.4%, though the recovery will feature weak foundation and volatility.

Emerging market and developing economies will be economic drivers in 2020

According to IMF forecasts, growth rate of emerging market and developing economies will increase to 4.6% in 2020. Recessions will ebb in Argentina, Iran and Turkey whose economies have been under stress, and there have been recovery in Brazil, India, Mexico, Russia, and Saudi Arabia whose economic growth is significantly slower than in 2018. However, there are huge uncertainties surrounding the recovery, not least considering the growth of major economies like the US, Japan and China will be slower in 2020.

Global risks are escalating

IMF thinks that the global economic growth faces some downward risks. Escalating trade and geopolitical tensions, including risks around Brexit, might further temper with the already weak recovery momentum. This may cause drastic changes in risk sentiment, financial volatility, and capital flee in emerging market economies. Low inflation will Low inflation in advanced economies could become entrenched and constrain monetary policy space further into the future.

Growth forecasts for major economies

According to IMF forecasts, in 2019 and 2020, the US economy will grow by 1.7%; Japan will grow by 0.9% and 0.5% respectively; the Euro zone will grow by 1.2% and 1.4% respectively. Among emerging market economies, China will grow by 6.1% and 5.8% respectively; Russia will grow by 1.1% and 1.9% respectively; India will growth by 6.1% and 7.0% respectively; and ASEAN countries will grow by 4.8% and 4.9% respectively.